UCAM Murcia II 1–0 Unión Molinense: Result & Stats

UCAM Murcia II

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Unión Molinense

10/15/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 6Estadio El Mayayo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

UCAM Murcia II41%

×Draw28%

Unión Molinense31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UCAM Murcia IIExpected goals in this matchUnión Molinense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.04

UCAM Murcia II

1.24

Unión Molinense

1.04

UCAM Murcia II creates 19% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 67 away

1.51

creates per match

1.18

0.90

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

UCAM Murcia II

1.51

Unión Molinense

1.18

allows per match

UCAM Murcia II

0.90

Unión Molinense

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UCAM Murcia II+0.00on par

Unión Molinense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UCAM Murcia II ↓

Unión Molinense →

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

UCAM Murcia II or draw

69%

UCAM Murcia II or Unión Molinense

72%

Draw or Unión Molinense

59%

Winning margin

UCAM Murcia II wins by 2+

18%

Unión Molinense wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

UCAM Murcia II 1+ goals

71%

UCAM Murcia II 2+ goals

35%

UCAM Murcia II 3+ goals

13%

Unión Molinense 1+ goals

65%

Unión Molinense 2+ goals

28%

Unión Molinense 3+ goals

Draw no bet

UCAM Murcia II (draw refunded)

57%

Unión Molinense (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

UCAM Murcia II at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.90 · 110 matches

Unión Molinense away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.97 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

UCAM Murcia II attack 1.51 + Unión Molinense defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.24

Unión Molinense attack 1.18 + UCAM Murcia II defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

UCAM Murcia II scores more

41%

level

28%

Unión Molinense scores more

31%

UCAM Murcia II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "UCAM Murcia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UCAM Murcia II vs Unión Molinense

UCAM Murcia II beat Unión Molinense 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on October 15, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio El Mayayo in Sangonera la Verde.

UCAM Murcia II vs Unión Molinense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: UCAM Murcia II vs Unión Molinense