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UCAM Murcia II vs UD Caravaca — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

UCAM Murcia II
UCAM Murcia II
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
UD Caravaca
UD Caravaca
10/8/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 5Estadio El Mayayo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

UCAM Murcia II49%
×Draw26%
UD Caravaca25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UCAM Murcia II
1.54
UD Caravaca
1.03

UCAM Murcia II creates 50% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 83 away

creates per match

UCAM Murcia II
1.51
UD Caravaca
1.16

allows per match

UCAM Murcia II
0.90
UD Caravaca
1.57

finishing

UCAM Murcia II+0.00on par
UD Caravaca+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UCAM Murcia II ↓

UD Caravaca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

UCAM Murcia II or draw
75%
UCAM Murcia II or UD Caravaca
74%
Draw or UD Caravaca
51%

Winning margin

UCAM Murcia II wins by 2+
25%
UD Caravaca wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

UCAM Murcia II 1+ goals
79%
UCAM Murcia II 2+ goals
45%
UCAM Murcia II 3+ goals
20%
UD Caravaca 1+ goals
64%
UD Caravaca 2+ goals
28%
UD Caravaca 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

UCAM Murcia II (draw refunded)
66%
UD Caravaca (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UCAM Murcia II at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.90 · 110 matches

UD Caravaca away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.57 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UCAM Murcia II attack 1.51 + UD Caravaca defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.54

UD Caravaca attack 1.16 + UCAM Murcia II defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

UCAM Murcia II scores more
49%
level
26%
UD Caravaca scores more
25%

UCAM Murcia II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "UCAM Murcia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UCAM Murcia II 3 – 1 UD Caravaca

UCAM Murcia II beat UD Caravaca 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on October 8, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio El Mayayo in Sangonera la Verde.