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UCAM Murcia II vs Plus Ultra — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

UCAM Murcia II
UCAM Murcia II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Plus Ultra
Plus Ultra
10/25/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 2Estadio El Mayayo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

UCAM Murcia II65%
×Draw20%
Plus Ultra15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UCAM Murcia II
2.04
Plus Ultra
0.84

UCAM Murcia II creates 143% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 63 away

creates per match

UCAM Murcia II
1.51
Plus Ultra
0.79

allows per match

UCAM Murcia II
0.90
Plus Ultra
2.56

finishing

UCAM Murcia II+0.00on par
Plus Ultra+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UCAM Murcia II ↓

Plus Ultra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

UCAM Murcia II or draw
85%
UCAM Murcia II or Plus Ultra
80%
Draw or Plus Ultra
35%

Winning margin

UCAM Murcia II wins by 2+
40%
Plus Ultra wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

UCAM Murcia II 1+ goals
87%
UCAM Murcia II 2+ goals
60%
UCAM Murcia II 3+ goals
33%
Plus Ultra 1+ goals
57%
Plus Ultra 2+ goals
21%
Plus Ultra 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

UCAM Murcia II (draw refunded)
82%
Plus Ultra (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UCAM Murcia II at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.90 · 110 matches

Plus Ultra away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.56 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UCAM Murcia II attack 1.51 + Plus Ultra defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.04

Plus Ultra attack 0.79 + UCAM Murcia II defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

UCAM Murcia II scores more
65%
level
20%
Plus Ultra scores more
15%

UCAM Murcia II at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "UCAM Murcia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UCAM Murcia II vs Plus Ultra

UCAM Murcia II and Plus Ultra drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on October 25, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio El Mayayo in Sangonera la Verde.