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Plus Ultra vs UCAM Murcia II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Plus Ultra
Plus Ultra
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
UCAM Murcia II
UCAM Murcia II
1/24/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 13Estadio Municipal de Llano de Brujas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Plus Ultra24%
×Draw25%
UCAM Murcia II50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plus Ultra
1.01
UCAM Murcia II
1.57

UCAM Murcia II creates 55% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 110 away

creates per match

Plus Ultra
0.89
UCAM Murcia II
1.33

allows per match

Plus Ultra
1.81
UCAM Murcia II
1.14

finishing

Plus Ultra+0.00on par
UCAM Murcia II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plus Ultra ↓

UCAM Murcia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Plus Ultra or draw
50%
Plus Ultra or UCAM Murcia II
75%
Draw or UCAM Murcia II
76%

Winning margin

Plus Ultra wins by 2+
9%
UCAM Murcia II wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Plus Ultra 1+ goals
64%
Plus Ultra 2+ goals
27%
Plus Ultra 3+ goals
8%
UCAM Murcia II 1+ goals
79%
UCAM Murcia II 2+ goals
46%
UCAM Murcia II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Plus Ultra (draw refunded)
33%
UCAM Murcia II (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plus Ultra at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.81 · 63 matches

UCAM Murcia II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.14 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plus Ultra attack 0.89 + UCAM Murcia II defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.01

UCAM Murcia II attack 1.33 + Plus Ultra defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Plus Ultra scores more
24%
level
25%
UCAM Murcia II scores more
50%

UCAM Murcia II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "UCAM Murcia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Plus Ultra 0 – 4 UCAM Murcia II

UCAM Murcia II beat Plus Ultra 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on January 24, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Llano de Brujas in Llano de Brujas.