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UCAM Murcia II vs Los Garres — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

UCAM Murcia II
UCAM Murcia II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Los Garres
Los Garres
2/7/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 15Estadio El Mayayo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

UCAM Murcia II51%
×Draw26%
Los Garres23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UCAM Murcia II
1.54
Los Garres
0.94

UCAM Murcia II creates 64% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 44 away

creates per match

UCAM Murcia II
1.51
Los Garres
0.98

allows per match

UCAM Murcia II
0.90
Los Garres
1.57

finishing

UCAM Murcia II+0.00on par
Los Garres+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UCAM Murcia II ↓

Los Garres →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

UCAM Murcia II or draw
77%
UCAM Murcia II or Los Garres
74%
Draw or Los Garres
49%

Winning margin

UCAM Murcia II wins by 2+
26%
Los Garres wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

UCAM Murcia II 1+ goals
79%
UCAM Murcia II 2+ goals
45%
UCAM Murcia II 3+ goals
20%
Los Garres 1+ goals
61%
Los Garres 2+ goals
24%
Los Garres 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

UCAM Murcia II (draw refunded)
69%
Los Garres (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UCAM Murcia II at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.90 · 110 matches

Los Garres away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.57 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UCAM Murcia II attack 1.51 + Los Garres defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.54

Los Garres attack 0.98 + UCAM Murcia II defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

UCAM Murcia II scores more
51%
level
26%
Los Garres scores more
23%

UCAM Murcia II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "UCAM Murcia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UCAM Murcia II 1 – 2 Los Garres

Los Garres beat UCAM Murcia II 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on February 7, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio El Mayayo in Sangonera la Verde.