Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

UCAM Murcia II vs CAP Ciudad de Murcia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

UCAM Murcia II
UCAM Murcia II
CANC
00:00
CAP Ciudad de Murcia
CAP Ciudad de Murcia
3/15/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 29Estadio El Mayayo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

UCAM Murcia II51%
×Draw26%
CAP Ciudad de Murcia22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UCAM Murcia II
1.48
CAP Ciudad de Murcia
0.88

UCAM Murcia II creates 68% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 78 away

creates per match

UCAM Murcia II
1.51
CAP Ciudad de Murcia
0.85

allows per match

UCAM Murcia II
0.90
CAP Ciudad de Murcia
1.45

finishing

UCAM Murcia II+0.00on par
CAP Ciudad de Murcia+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UCAM Murcia II ↓

CAP Ciudad de Murcia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

UCAM Murcia II or draw
78%
UCAM Murcia II or CAP Ciudad de Murcia
74%
Draw or CAP Ciudad de Murcia
49%

Winning margin

UCAM Murcia II wins by 2+
26%
CAP Ciudad de Murcia wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

UCAM Murcia II 1+ goals
77%
UCAM Murcia II 2+ goals
43%
UCAM Murcia II 3+ goals
19%
CAP Ciudad de Murcia 1+ goals
59%
CAP Ciudad de Murcia 2+ goals
22%
CAP Ciudad de Murcia 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

UCAM Murcia II (draw refunded)
70%
CAP Ciudad de Murcia (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UCAM Murcia II at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.90 · 110 matches

CAP Ciudad de Murcia away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.45 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UCAM Murcia II attack 1.51 + CAP Ciudad de Murcia defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.48

CAP Ciudad de Murcia attack 0.85 + UCAM Murcia II defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

UCAM Murcia II scores more
51%
level
26%
CAP Ciudad de Murcia scores more
22%

UCAM Murcia II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "UCAM Murcia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: UCAM Murcia II host CAP Ciudad de Murcia

March 15, 2020: UCAM Murcia II take on CAP Ciudad de Murcia in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

UCAM Murcia II host CAP Ciudad de Murcia at Estadio El Mayayo.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.