CAP Ciudad de Murcia 1–0 UCAM Murcia II

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

UCAM Murcia II

Marcos Díaz 61'

10/22/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 7Estadio José Barnés

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

CAP Ciudad de Murcia33%

×Draw29%

UCAM Murcia II38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CAP Ciudad de MurciaExpected goals in this matchUCAM Murcia II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.19

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.08

UCAM Murcia II

1.19

UCAM Murcia II creates 10% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 110 away

1.03

creates per match

1.33

1.04

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.03

UCAM Murcia II

1.33

allows per match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.04

UCAM Murcia II

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CAP Ciudad de Murcia+0.00on par

UCAM Murcia II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CAP Ciudad de Murcia ↓

UCAM Murcia II →

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

CAP Ciudad de Murcia or draw

62%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia or UCAM Murcia II

71%

Draw or UCAM Murcia II

67%

Winning margin

CAP Ciudad de Murcia wins by 2+

13%

UCAM Murcia II wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 1+ goals

66%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 2+ goals

29%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 3+ goals

10%

UCAM Murcia II 1+ goals

70%

UCAM Murcia II 2+ goals

33%

UCAM Murcia II 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

CAP Ciudad de Murcia (draw refunded)

46%

UCAM Murcia II (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

CAP Ciudad de Murcia at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.04 · 78 matches

UCAM Murcia II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.14 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia attack 1.03 + UCAM Murcia II defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.08

UCAM Murcia II attack 1.33 + CAP Ciudad de Murcia defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

CAP Ciudad de Murcia scores more

33%

level

29%

UCAM Murcia II scores more

38%

UCAM Murcia II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "UCAM Murcia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

61'

Marcos Díaz

62'

Alex Torres← José Pedrosa

62'

Tomás Inglés← Luis Gutiérrez

62'

Iker Abellán← Román Fita

70'

Víctor Esquerdo← Javi López

72'

Juan Vera← Hamza Agnaou

76'

Pablo Guillen← Marcos Díaz

78'

Alejandro Domingo← Óscar Zorrilla

89'

Felipe Valverde← Dani Casado

89'

Fernando Carmona← Fran Martínez

CAP

UCAM

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⚽

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Díaz

Manager: Francisco Lorca

72'▲Juan Vera←▼Hamza Agnaou

76'▲Pablo Guillen←▼Marcos Díaz

89'▲Felipe Valverde←▼Dani Casado

89'▲Fernando Carmona←▼Fran Martínez

CAP Ciudad de Murcia substitutes

VeraGuillenValverdeCarmona

Manager: Raúl Guillén

62'▲Alex Torres←▼José Pedrosa

62'▲Tomás Inglés←▼Luis Gutiérrez

62'▲Iker Abellán←▼Román Fita

70'▲Víctor Esquerdo←▼Javi López

78'▲Alejandro Domingo←▼Óscar Zorrilla

UCAM Murcia II substitutes

TorresInglésAbellánEsquerdoDomingo