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UCAM Murcia II vs Balsicas Atlético — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

UCAM Murcia II
UCAM Murcia II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Balsicas Atlético
Balsicas Atlético
4/11/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 30Estadio El Mayayo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

UCAM Murcia II54%
×Draw25%
Balsicas Atlético20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UCAM Murcia II
1.58
Balsicas Atlético
0.86

UCAM Murcia II creates 84% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 51 away

creates per match

UCAM Murcia II
1.51
Balsicas Atlético
0.82

allows per match

UCAM Murcia II
0.90
Balsicas Atlético
1.65

finishing

UCAM Murcia II+0.00on par
Balsicas Atlético+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UCAM Murcia II ↓

Balsicas Atlético →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

UCAM Murcia II or draw
80%
UCAM Murcia II or Balsicas Atlético
75%
Draw or Balsicas Atlético
46%

Winning margin

UCAM Murcia II wins by 2+
29%
Balsicas Atlético wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

UCAM Murcia II 1+ goals
79%
UCAM Murcia II 2+ goals
47%
UCAM Murcia II 3+ goals
21%
Balsicas Atlético 1+ goals
58%
Balsicas Atlético 2+ goals
21%
Balsicas Atlético 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

UCAM Murcia II (draw refunded)
73%
Balsicas Atlético (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UCAM Murcia II at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.90 · 110 matches

Balsicas Atlético away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.65 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UCAM Murcia II attack 1.51 + Balsicas Atlético defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.58

Balsicas Atlético attack 0.82 + UCAM Murcia II defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

UCAM Murcia II scores more
54%
level
25%
Balsicas Atlético scores more
20%

UCAM Murcia II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "UCAM Murcia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: UCAM Murcia II 1–1 Balsicas Atlético

UCAM Murcia II and Balsicas Atlético drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on April 11, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio El Mayayo in Sangonera la Verde.