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Ubon UMT vs Thai Honda FC — Thai League 2 2018

Ubon UMT
Ubon UMT
FT
0 – 1
Thai Honda FC
Thai Honda FC
6/29/2019Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 18UMT Stadium (Ubon Ratchathani)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ubon UMT33%
×Draw27%
Thai Honda FC40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ubon UMT
1.20
Thai Honda FC
1.34

Thai Honda FC creates 12% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 31 away

creates per match

Ubon UMT
0.88
Thai Honda FC
1.16

allows per match

Ubon UMT
1.53
Thai Honda FC
1.52

finishing

Ubon UMT+0.00on par
Thai Honda FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ubon UMT ↓

Thai Honda FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ubon UMT or draw
60%
Ubon UMT or Thai Honda FC
73%
Draw or Thai Honda FC
67%

Winning margin

Ubon UMT wins by 2+
14%
Thai Honda FC wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Ubon UMT 1+ goals
70%
Ubon UMT 2+ goals
34%
Ubon UMT 3+ goals
12%
Thai Honda FC 1+ goals
74%
Thai Honda FC 2+ goals
39%
Thai Honda FC 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Ubon UMT (draw refunded)
45%
Thai Honda FC (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ubon UMT at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Thai Honda FC away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.52 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ubon UMT attack 0.88 + Thai Honda FC defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.20

Thai Honda FC attack 1.16 + Ubon UMT defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ubon UMT scores more
33%
level
27%
Thai Honda FC scores more
40%

Thai Honda FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Thai Honda FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Ubon UMT 0–1 Thai Honda FC

Thai Honda FC beat Ubon UMT 1-0 in Thai League 2 on June 29, 2019.

The match was played at UMT Stadium (Ubon Ratchathani).