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Ubon UMT vs Sisaket — Thai League 2 2018

Ubon UMT
Ubon UMT
FT
0 – 3
Sisaket
Sisaket
4/7/2019Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 9UMT Stadium (Ubon Ratchathani)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ubon UMT31%
×Draw28%
Sisaket41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ubon UMT
1.08
Sisaket
1.27

Sisaket creates 18% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 47 away

creates per match

Ubon UMT
0.88
Sisaket
1.02

allows per match

Ubon UMT
1.53
Sisaket
1.28

finishing

Ubon UMT+0.00on par
Sisaket+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ubon UMT ↓

Sisaket →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ubon UMT or draw
59%
Ubon UMT or Sisaket
72%
Draw or Sisaket
69%

Winning margin

Ubon UMT wins by 2+
12%
Sisaket wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Ubon UMT 1+ goals
66%
Ubon UMT 2+ goals
29%
Ubon UMT 3+ goals
10%
Sisaket 1+ goals
72%
Sisaket 2+ goals
36%
Sisaket 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Ubon UMT (draw refunded)
44%
Sisaket (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ubon UMT at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Sisaket away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.28 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ubon UMT attack 0.88 + Sisaket defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.08

Sisaket attack 1.02 + Ubon UMT defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ubon UMT scores more
31%
level
28%
Sisaket scores more
41%

Sisaket at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sisaket will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Ubon UMT 0–3 Sisaket

Sisaket beat Ubon UMT 3-0 in Thai League 2 on April 7, 2019.

The match was played at UMT Stadium (Ubon Ratchathani).