Ubon UMT 0–0 Nong Bua Pitchaya: Result & Stats

Ubon UMT

FT

0 – 0

Nong Bua Pitchaya

9/25/2019

Thai League 2 · Round 31UMT Stadium (Ubon Ratchathani)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ubon UMT29%

×Draw26%

Nong Bua Pitchaya45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ubon UMTExpected goals in this matchNong Bua Pitchaya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.44

Ubon UMT

1.09

Nong Bua Pitchaya

1.44

Nong Bua Pitchaya creates 32% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 83 away

0.88

creates per match

1.34

1.53

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Ubon UMT

0.88

Nong Bua Pitchaya

1.34

allows per match

Ubon UMT

1.53

Nong Bua Pitchaya

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ubon UMT+0.00on par

Nong Bua Pitchaya+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ubon UMT ↓

Nong Bua Pitchaya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ubon UMT or draw

55%

Ubon UMT or Nong Bua Pitchaya

74%

Draw or Nong Bua Pitchaya

71%

Winning margin

Ubon UMT wins by 2+

11%

Nong Bua Pitchaya wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Ubon UMT 1+ goals

66%

Ubon UMT 2+ goals

30%

Ubon UMT 3+ goals

10%

Nong Bua Pitchaya 1+ goals

76%

Nong Bua Pitchaya 2+ goals

42%

Nong Bua Pitchaya 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Ubon UMT (draw refunded)

39%

Nong Bua Pitchaya (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ubon UMT at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Nong Bua Pitchaya away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.30 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ubon UMT attack 0.88 + Nong Bua Pitchaya defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.09

Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 1.34 + Ubon UMT defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ubon UMT scores more

29%

level

26%

Nong Bua Pitchaya scores more

45%

Nong Bua Pitchaya at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Nong Bua Pitchaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff