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Ubon UMT vs Khonkaen — Thai League 2 2018

Ubon UMT
Ubon UMT
FT
1 – 1
Khonkaen
Khonkaen
7/28/2019Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 22UMT Stadium (Ubon Ratchathani)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ubon UMT37%
×Draw27%
Khonkaen37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ubon UMT
1.27
Khonkaen
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 65 away

creates per match

Ubon UMT
0.88
Khonkaen
1.02

allows per match

Ubon UMT
1.53
Khonkaen
1.66

finishing

Ubon UMT+0.00on par
Khonkaen+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ubon UMT ↓

Khonkaen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ubon UMT or draw
63%
Ubon UMT or Khonkaen
73%
Draw or Khonkaen
63%

Winning margin

Ubon UMT wins by 2+
16%
Khonkaen wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Ubon UMT 1+ goals
72%
Ubon UMT 2+ goals
36%
Ubon UMT 3+ goals
14%
Khonkaen 1+ goals
72%
Khonkaen 2+ goals
36%
Khonkaen 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Ubon UMT (draw refunded)
50%
Khonkaen (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ubon UMT at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Khonkaen away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.66 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ubon UMT attack 0.88 + Khonkaen defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.27

Khonkaen attack 1.02 + Ubon UMT defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Ubon UMT scores more
37%
level
27%
Khonkaen scores more
37%

Ubon UMT at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Ubon UMT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ubon UMT vs Khonkaen

Ubon UMT and Khonkaen drew 1-1 in Thai League 2 on July 28, 2019.

The match was played at UMT Stadium (Ubon Ratchathani).