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Ubon UMT vs Kasetsart FC — Thai League 2 2018

Ubon UMT
Ubon UMT
FT
0 – 3
Kasetsart FC
Kasetsart FC
2/9/2019Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 1UMT Stadium (Ubon Ratchathani)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ubon UMT40%
×Draw27%
Kasetsart FC33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ubon UMT
1.36
Kasetsart FC
1.21

Ubon UMT creates 12% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 132 away

creates per match

Ubon UMT
0.88
Kasetsart FC
0.88

allows per match

Ubon UMT
1.53
Kasetsart FC
1.85

finishing

Ubon UMT+0.00on par
Kasetsart FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ubon UMT ↓

Kasetsart FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Ubon UMT or draw
67%
Ubon UMT or Kasetsart FC
73%
Draw or Kasetsart FC
60%

Winning margin

Ubon UMT wins by 2+
19%
Kasetsart FC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Ubon UMT 1+ goals
74%
Ubon UMT 2+ goals
39%
Ubon UMT 3+ goals
16%
Kasetsart FC 1+ goals
70%
Kasetsart FC 2+ goals
34%
Kasetsart FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Ubon UMT (draw refunded)
55%
Kasetsart FC (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ubon UMT at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Kasetsart FC away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.85 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ubon UMT attack 0.88 + Kasetsart FC defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.36

Kasetsart FC attack 0.88 + Ubon UMT defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ubon UMT scores more
40%
level
27%
Kasetsart FC scores more
33%

Ubon UMT at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ubon UMT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ubon UMT vs Kasetsart FC

Kasetsart FC beat Ubon UMT 3-0 in Thai League 2 on February 9, 2019.

The match was played at UMT Stadium (Ubon Ratchathani).