Ubon UMT vs BG Pathum United — Thai League 2 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 17+ matches
Ubon UMT21%
BG Pathum United55%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
BG Pathum United creates 78% more chances
Season form · 17 home / 17 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over51
- Under49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes51
- No49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Ubon UMT ↓
Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Ubon UMT at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches
BG Pathum United away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Ubon UMT attack 0.88 + BG Pathum United defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.97
BG Pathum United attack 1.94 + Ubon UMT defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.73
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 55%?"
BG Pathum United at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 55% does not mean "BG Pathum United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
PTT Rayong
Trat FC
Chiangmai FC
Khonkaen
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Samut Sakhon FC
Army United
Lampang FC
Sisaket
Rayong FC
Thai Honda FC
Kasetsart FC
Krabi FC
Ang Thong FCIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Ubon UMT host BG Pathum United on Saturday, 17 August 2019 at 12:00. The match is part of the Thai League 2 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Ubon UMT vs BG Pathum United
BG Pathum United beat Ubon UMT 4-1 in Thai League 2 on August 17, 2019.
The match was played at UMT Stadium (Ubon Ratchathani).