Ubon UMT 1–2 Air Force Central FC: Result & Stats

Ubon UMT

FT

1 – 2

Air Force Central FC

8/4/2019

Thai League 2 · Round 24UMT Stadium (Ubon Ratchathani)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ubon UMT40%

×Draw26%

Air Force Central FC34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ubon UMTExpected goals in this matchAir Force Central FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.27

Ubon UMT

1.38

Air Force Central FC

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

0.88

creates per match

1.00

1.53

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Ubon UMT

0.88

Air Force Central FC

1.00

allows per match

Ubon UMT

1.53

Air Force Central FC

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ubon UMT+0.00on par

Air Force Central FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ubon UMT ↓

Air Force Central FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Ubon UMT or draw

66%

Ubon UMT or Air Force Central FC

74%

Draw or Air Force Central FC

60%

Winning margin

Ubon UMT wins by 2+

18%

Air Force Central FC wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Ubon UMT 1+ goals

75%

Ubon UMT 2+ goals

40%

Ubon UMT 3+ goals

16%

Air Force Central FC 1+ goals

72%

Air Force Central FC 2+ goals

36%

Air Force Central FC 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Ubon UMT (draw refunded)

53%

Air Force Central FC (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ubon UMT at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Air Force Central FC away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ubon UMT attack 0.88 + Air Force Central FC defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.38

Air Force Central FC attack 1.00 + Ubon UMT defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ubon UMT scores more

40%

level

26%

Air Force Central FC scores more

34%

Ubon UMT at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ubon UMT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff