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Ubombo Sugar vs Sisonkhe — Premier League 2020

Ubombo Sugar
Ubombo Sugar
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sisonkhe
Sisonkhe
2/7/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ubombo Sugar35%
×Draw32%
Sisonkhe33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ubombo Sugar
0.98
Sisonkhe
0.94

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 28 away

creates per match

Ubombo Sugar
0.53
Sisonkhe
0.54

allows per match

Ubombo Sugar
1.33
Sisonkhe
1.43

finishing

Ubombo Sugar+0.00on par
Sisonkhe+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ubombo Sugar ↓

Sisonkhe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Ubombo Sugar or draw
67%
Ubombo Sugar or Sisonkhe
68%
Draw or Sisonkhe
65%

Winning margin

Ubombo Sugar wins by 2+
13%
Sisonkhe wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ubombo Sugar 1+ goals
62%
Ubombo Sugar 2+ goals
26%
Ubombo Sugar 3+ goals
8%
Sisonkhe 1+ goals
61%
Sisonkhe 2+ goals
24%
Sisonkhe 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ubombo Sugar (draw refunded)
52%
Sisonkhe (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ubombo Sugar at home — creates 0.53, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

Sisonkhe away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.43 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ubombo Sugar attack 0.53 + Sisonkhe defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 0.98

Sisonkhe attack 0.54 + Ubombo Sugar defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Ubombo Sugar scores more
35%
level
32%
Sisonkhe scores more
33%

Ubombo Sugar at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Ubombo Sugar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Ubombo Sugar 1–0 Sisonkhe

Ubombo Sugar beat Sisonkhe 1-0 in Premier League on February 7, 2026.