Ubombo Sugar 1–5 Royal Leopards: Result & Stats

Ubombo Sugar

FT

1 – 5

Royal Leopards

11/29/2025

Premier League · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ubombo Sugar17%

×Draw25%

Royal Leopards58%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ubombo SugarExpected goals in this matchRoyal Leopards

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.74

1.60

Ubombo Sugar

0.74

Royal Leopards

1.60

Royal Leopards creates 116% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 85 away

0.53

creates per match

1.88

1.33

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Ubombo Sugar

0.53

Royal Leopards

1.88

allows per match

Ubombo Sugar

1.33

Royal Leopards

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ubombo Sugar+0.00on par

Royal Leopards+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ubombo Sugar ↓

Royal Leopards →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–115%

0–212%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–14%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Ubombo Sugar or draw

42%

Ubombo Sugar or Royal Leopards

75%

Draw or Royal Leopards

83%

Winning margin

Ubombo Sugar wins by 2+

5%

Royal Leopards wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Ubombo Sugar 1+ goals

52%

Ubombo Sugar 2+ goals

17%

Ubombo Sugar 3+ goals

4%

Royal Leopards 1+ goals

80%

Royal Leopards 2+ goals

47%

Royal Leopards 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Ubombo Sugar (draw refunded)

23%

Royal Leopards (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ubombo Sugar at home — creates 0.53, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

Royal Leopards away — creates 1.88, concedes 0.96 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ubombo Sugar attack 0.53 + Royal Leopards defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.74

Royal Leopards attack 1.88 + Ubombo Sugar defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Ubombo Sugar scores more

17%

level

25%

Royal Leopards scores more

58%

Royal Leopards at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Royal Leopards will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff