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Ubombo Sugar vs Mbabane Swallows — Premier League 2020

Ubombo Sugar
Ubombo Sugar
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Mbabane Swallows
Mbabane Swallows
10/26/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ubombo Sugar19%
×Draw28%
Mbabane Swallows53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ubombo Sugar
0.67
Mbabane Swallows
1.35

Mbabane Swallows creates 101% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 83 away

creates per match

Ubombo Sugar
0.53
Mbabane Swallows
1.37

allows per match

Ubombo Sugar
1.33
Mbabane Swallows
0.81

finishing

Ubombo Sugar+0.00on par
Mbabane Swallows+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ubombo Sugar ↓

Mbabane Swallows →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–118%
0–212%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Ubombo Sugar or draw
47%
Ubombo Sugar or Mbabane Swallows
72%
Draw or Mbabane Swallows
81%

Winning margin

Ubombo Sugar wins by 2+
5%
Mbabane Swallows wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Ubombo Sugar 1+ goals
49%
Ubombo Sugar 2+ goals
15%
Ubombo Sugar 3+ goals
3%
Mbabane Swallows 1+ goals
74%
Mbabane Swallows 2+ goals
39%
Mbabane Swallows 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Ubombo Sugar (draw refunded)
26%
Mbabane Swallows (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ubombo Sugar at home — creates 0.53, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

Mbabane Swallows away — creates 1.37, concedes 0.81 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ubombo Sugar attack 0.53 + Mbabane Swallows defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.67

Mbabane Swallows attack 1.37 + Ubombo Sugar defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Ubombo Sugar scores more
19%
level
28%
Mbabane Swallows scores more
53%

Mbabane Swallows at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Mbabane Swallows will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Ubombo Sugar 1–2 Mbabane Swallows

Mbabane Swallows beat Ubombo Sugar 2-1 in Premier League on October 26, 2025.