Ubombo Sugar 2–0 Malanti Chiefs: Result & Stats

Ubombo Sugar

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Malanti Chiefs

1/21/2026

Premier League · Round 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ubombo Sugar37%

×Draw29%

Malanti Chiefs34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ubombo SugarExpected goals in this matchMalanti Chiefs

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.09

Ubombo Sugar

1.16

Malanti Chiefs

1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 46 away

0.53

creates per match

0.85

1.33

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Ubombo Sugar

0.53

Malanti Chiefs

0.85

allows per match

Ubombo Sugar

1.33

Malanti Chiefs

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ubombo Sugar+0.00on par

Malanti Chiefs+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ubombo Sugar ↓

Malanti Chiefs →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Ubombo Sugar or draw

66%

Ubombo Sugar or Malanti Chiefs

71%

Draw or Malanti Chiefs

63%

Winning margin

Ubombo Sugar wins by 2+

16%

Malanti Chiefs wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Ubombo Sugar 1+ goals

69%

Ubombo Sugar 2+ goals

32%

Ubombo Sugar 3+ goals

11%

Malanti Chiefs 1+ goals

66%

Malanti Chiefs 2+ goals

30%

Malanti Chiefs 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Ubombo Sugar (draw refunded)

52%

Malanti Chiefs (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ubombo Sugar at home — creates 0.53, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

Malanti Chiefs away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.78 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ubombo Sugar attack 0.53 + Malanti Chiefs defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.16

Malanti Chiefs attack 0.85 + Ubombo Sugar defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Ubombo Sugar scores more

37%

level

29%

Malanti Chiefs scores more

34%

Ubombo Sugar at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Ubombo Sugar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff