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Ubombo Sugar vs Highlanders — Premier League 2020

Ubombo Sugar
Ubombo Sugar
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Highlanders
Highlanders
5/1/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 26

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ubombo Sugar21%
×Draw29%
Highlanders50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ubombo Sugar
0.73
Highlanders
1.31

Highlanders creates 79% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 83 away

creates per match

Ubombo Sugar
0.53
Highlanders
1.29

allows per match

Ubombo Sugar
1.33
Highlanders
0.92

finishing

Ubombo Sugar+0.00on par
Highlanders+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ubombo Sugar ↓

Highlanders →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–117%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ubombo Sugar or draw
50%
Ubombo Sugar or Highlanders
71%
Draw or Highlanders
79%

Winning margin

Ubombo Sugar wins by 2+
6%
Highlanders wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Ubombo Sugar 1+ goals
52%
Ubombo Sugar 2+ goals
17%
Ubombo Sugar 3+ goals
4%
Highlanders 1+ goals
73%
Highlanders 2+ goals
38%
Highlanders 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Ubombo Sugar (draw refunded)
29%
Highlanders (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ubombo Sugar at home — creates 0.53, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

Highlanders away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.92 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ubombo Sugar attack 0.53 + Highlanders defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.73

Highlanders attack 1.29 + Ubombo Sugar defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ubombo Sugar scores more
21%
level
29%
Highlanders scores more
50%

Highlanders at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Highlanders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Ubombo Sugar 0–2 Highlanders

Highlanders beat Ubombo Sugar 2-0 in Premier League on May 1, 2026.