Ubombo Sugar 1–0 Amawele: Result & Stats

Ubombo Sugar

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Amawele

4/4/2026

Premier League · Round 22

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ubombo Sugar25%

×Draw32%

Amawele43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ubombo SugarExpected goals in this matchAmawele

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.73

1.07

Ubombo Sugar

0.73

Amawele

1.07

Amawele creates 47% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 17 away

0.53

creates per match

0.82

1.33

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Ubombo Sugar

0.53

Amawele

0.82

allows per match

Ubombo Sugar

1.33

Amawele

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ubombo Sugar+0.00on par

Amawele+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ubombo Sugar ↓

Amawele →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–118%

0–29%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Ubombo Sugar or draw

57%

Ubombo Sugar or Amawele

68%

Draw or Amawele

75%

Winning margin

Ubombo Sugar wins by 2+

7%

Amawele wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Ubombo Sugar 1+ goals

52%

Ubombo Sugar 2+ goals

17%

Ubombo Sugar 3+ goals

4%

Amawele 1+ goals

66%

Amawele 2+ goals

29%

Amawele 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Ubombo Sugar (draw refunded)

36%

Amawele (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ubombo Sugar at home — creates 0.53, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

Amawele away — creates 0.82, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ubombo Sugar attack 0.53 + Amawele defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.73

Amawele attack 0.82 + Ubombo Sugar defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ubombo Sugar scores more

25%

level

32%

Amawele scores more

43%

Amawele at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Amawele will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff