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Uberlandia vs Varginha EC — Mineiro - 2 2026

Uberlandia
Uberlandia
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Varginha EC
Varginha EC
Pedro Vitor 74'
E. Sousa 90'
V. Ruas 21'
L. Bezerra 15'
5/28/2023Mineiro - 2Mineiro - 2 · Round 7Estádio Municipal João Havelange

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Uberlandia54%
×Draw24%
Varginha EC21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uberlandia
1.69
Varginha EC
0.96

Uberlandia creates 76% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 26 away

creates per match

Uberlandia
1.91
Varginha EC
0.92

allows per match

Uberlandia
1.00
Varginha EC
1.46

finishing

Uberlandia+0.00on par
Varginha EC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 51Over: 4951%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No: 50Yes: 5050%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uberlandia ↓

Varginha EC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Uberlandia or draw
79%
Uberlandia or Varginha EC
76%
Draw or Varginha EC
46%

Winning margin

Uberlandia wins by 2+
30%
Varginha EC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Uberlandia 1+ goals
82%
Uberlandia 2+ goals
50%
Uberlandia 3+ goals
24%
Varginha EC 1+ goals
62%
Varginha EC 2+ goals
25%
Varginha EC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Uberlandia (draw refunded)
72%
Varginha EC (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uberlandia at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Varginha EC away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.46 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uberlandia attack 1.91 + Varginha EC defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.69

Varginha EC attack 0.92 + Uberlandia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Uberlandia scores more
54%
level
24%
Varginha EC scores more
21%

Uberlandia at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Uberlandia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
L. Bezerra
21'
V. Ruas
74'
Pedro Vitor
90'
E. Sousa

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mineiro - 2: Uberlandia 1–3 Varginha EC

Varginha EC beat Uberlandia 3-1 in Mineiro - 2 on May 28, 2023.

Goals: L. Bezerra (15'), V. Ruas (21'), Pedro Vitor (74'), E. Sousa (90').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal João Havelange in Uberlândia, Minas Gerais.