Uberlandia 4–1 Uniao Luziense: Result & Stats

Uberlandia

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Uniao Luziense

Marcio Junior 86'

Gabriel Henrique 75'

Anderson Magrao 67', 31'

Taison 73'

6/11/2023

Mineiro - 2 · Round 10Estádio Municipal João Havelange

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Uberlandia59%

×Draw23%

Uniao Luziense18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UberlandiaExpected goals in this matchUniao Luziense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.84

Uberlandia

1.77

Uniao Luziense

0.84

Uberlandia creates 111% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 16 away

1.91

creates per match

0.69

1.00

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Uberlandia

1.91

Uniao Luziense

0.69

allows per match

Uberlandia

1.00

Uniao Luziense

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Uberlandia+0.00on par

Uniao Luziense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uberlandia ↓

Uniao Luziense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Uberlandia or draw

82%

Uberlandia or Uniao Luziense

77%

Draw or Uniao Luziense

41%

Winning margin

Uberlandia wins by 2+

34%

Uniao Luziense wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Uberlandia 1+ goals

83%

Uberlandia 2+ goals

53%

Uberlandia 3+ goals

26%

Uniao Luziense 1+ goals

57%

Uniao Luziense 2+ goals

21%

Uniao Luziense 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Uberlandia (draw refunded)

77%

Uniao Luziense (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uberlandia at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Uniao Luziense away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uberlandia attack 1.91 + Uniao Luziense defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.77

Uniao Luziense attack 0.69 + Uberlandia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Uberlandia scores more

59%

level

23%

Uniao Luziense scores more

18%

Uberlandia at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Uberlandia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

Anderson Magrao

67'

Anderson Magrao

73'

Taison

75'

Gabriel Henrique

86'

Marcio Junior

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff