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Uberlandia vs Tupi — Mineiro - 2 2026

Uberlandia
Uberlandia
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Tupi
Tupi
Caique 25'
Michael Paulista 10'
5/19/2023Mineiro - 2Mineiro - 2 · Round 5Estádio Municipal João Havelange

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Uberlandia55%
×Draw25%
Tupi20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uberlandia
1.65
Tupi
0.90

Uberlandia creates 83% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 25 away

creates per match

Uberlandia
1.91
Tupi
0.80

allows per match

Uberlandia
1.00
Tupi
1.40

finishing

Uberlandia+0.00on par
Tupi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 53Over: 4753%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 52Yes: 4852%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uberlandia ↓

Tupi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Uberlandia or draw
80%
Uberlandia or Tupi
75%
Draw or Tupi
45%

Winning margin

Uberlandia wins by 2+
30%
Tupi wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Uberlandia 1+ goals
81%
Uberlandia 2+ goals
49%
Uberlandia 3+ goals
23%
Tupi 1+ goals
59%
Tupi 2+ goals
23%
Tupi 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Uberlandia (draw refunded)
73%
Tupi (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uberlandia at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Tupi away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.40 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uberlandia attack 1.91 + Tupi defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.65

Tupi attack 0.80 + Uberlandia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Uberlandia scores more
55%
level
25%
Tupi scores more
20%

Uberlandia at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Uberlandia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
Michael Paulista
25'
Caique

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Uberlandia vs Tupi

Uberlandia beat Tupi 2-0 in Mineiro - 2 on May 19, 2023.

Goals: Michael Paulista (10'), Caique (25').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal João Havelange in Uberlândia, Minas Gerais.