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Uberlandia vs BOA — Mineiro - 2 2026

Uberlandia
Uberlandiaadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
BOA
BOA
Caique 15'
7/23/2023Mineiro - 2Mineiro - 2 · Hexagonal Final - 6Estádio Municipal João Havelange

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Uberlandia53%
×Draw26%
BOA21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uberlandia
1.55
BOA
0.88

Uberlandia creates 76% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 32 away

creates per match

Uberlandia
1.91
BOA
0.75

allows per match

Uberlandia
1.00
BOA
1.19

finishing

Uberlandia+0.00on par
BOA+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 56Over: 4456%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 54Yes: 4654%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uberlandia ↓

BOA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Uberlandia or draw
79%
Uberlandia or BOA
74%
Draw or BOA
47%

Winning margin

Uberlandia wins by 2+
28%
BOA wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Uberlandia 1+ goals
79%
Uberlandia 2+ goals
46%
Uberlandia 3+ goals
20%
BOA 1+ goals
59%
BOA 2+ goals
22%
BOA 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Uberlandia (draw refunded)
71%
BOA (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uberlandia at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

BOA away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.19 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uberlandia attack 1.91 + BOA defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.55

BOA attack 0.75 + Uberlandia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Uberlandia scores more
53%
level
26%
BOA scores more
21%

Uberlandia at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Uberlandia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
Caique

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mineiro - 2: Uberlandia 1–0 BOA

Uberlandia beat BOA 1-0 in Mineiro - 2 on July 23, 2023.

Goals: Caique (15').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal João Havelange in Uberlândia, Minas Gerais.