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Uberaba vs Varginha EC — Mineiro - 2 2026

Uberaba
Uberaba
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Varginha EC
Varginha EC
5/10/2025Mineiro - 2Mineiro - 2 · Round 2Estádio Municipal Engenheiro João Guido

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Uberaba49%
×Draw27%
Varginha EC25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uberaba
1.43
Varginha EC
0.93

Uberaba creates 54% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 26 away

creates per match

Uberaba
1.40
Varginha EC
0.92

allows per match

Uberaba
0.93
Varginha EC
1.46

finishing

Uberaba+0.00on par
Varginha EC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 58Over: 4258%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 54Yes: 4654%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uberaba ↓

Varginha EC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Uberaba or draw
75%
Uberaba or Varginha EC
73%
Draw or Varginha EC
51%

Winning margin

Uberaba wins by 2+
24%
Varginha EC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Uberaba 1+ goals
76%
Uberaba 2+ goals
42%
Uberaba 3+ goals
17%
Varginha EC 1+ goals
61%
Varginha EC 2+ goals
24%
Varginha EC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Uberaba (draw refunded)
66%
Varginha EC (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uberaba at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Varginha EC away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.46 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uberaba attack 1.40 + Varginha EC defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.43

Varginha EC attack 0.92 + Uberaba defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Uberaba scores more
49%
level
27%
Varginha EC scores more
25%

Uberaba at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Uberaba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90+5'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mineiro - 2: Uberaba 0–0 Varginha EC

Uberaba and Varginha EC drew 0-0 in Mineiro - 2 on May 10, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Engenheiro João Guido in Uberaba, Minas Gerais.