Uberaba 2–1 Guarani MG: Result & Stats

Uberaba

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Guarani MG

Unknown 37', 7'

Unknown 16'

6/23/2026

Mineiro - 2 · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Uberaba44%

×Draw29%

Guarani MG27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UberabaExpected goals in this matchGuarani MG

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.94

Uberaba

1.27

Guarani MG

0.94

Uberaba creates 35% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 20 away

1.40

creates per match

0.95

0.93

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Uberaba

1.40

Guarani MG

0.95

allows per match

Uberaba

0.93

Guarani MG

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Uberaba+0.00on par

Guarani MG+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uberaba ↓

Guarani MG →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Uberaba or draw

73%

Uberaba or Guarani MG

71%

Draw or Guarani MG

56%

Winning margin

Uberaba wins by 2+

20%

Guarani MG wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Uberaba 1+ goals

72%

Uberaba 2+ goals

36%

Uberaba 3+ goals

14%

Guarani MG 1+ goals

61%

Guarani MG 2+ goals

24%

Guarani MG 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Uberaba (draw refunded)

62%

Guarani MG (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uberaba at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Guarani MG away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.15 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uberaba attack 1.40 + Guarani MG defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.27

Guarani MG attack 0.95 + Uberaba defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Uberaba scores more

44%

level

29%

Guarani MG scores more

27%

Uberaba at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Uberaba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

16'

37'

83'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff