Uberaba U20 2–0 XV de Novembro U20: Result & Stats

Uberaba U20

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

XV de Novembro U20

Unknown 18'

Joaozinho 6'

6/8/2025

Mineiro U20 · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Municipal Engenheiro João Guido

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Uberaba U2067%

×Draw18%

XV de Novembro U2015%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Uberaba U20Expected goals in this matchXV de Novembro U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.35

1.02

Uberaba U20

2.35

XV de Novembro U20

1.02

Uberaba U20 creates 130% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 12 away

1.63

creates per match

0.92

1.13

allows per match

3.08

creates per match

Uberaba U20

1.63

XV de Novembro U20

0.92

allows per match

Uberaba U20

1.13

XV de Novembro U20

3.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Uberaba U20+0.00on par

XV de Novembro U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uberaba U20 ↓

XV de Novembro U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Uberaba U20 or draw

85%

Uberaba U20 or XV de Novembro U20

82%

Draw or XV de Novembro U20

33%

Winning margin

Uberaba U20 wins by 2+

44%

XV de Novembro U20 wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Uberaba U20 1+ goals

90%

Uberaba U20 2+ goals

68%

Uberaba U20 3+ goals

41%

XV de Novembro U20 1+ goals

64%

XV de Novembro U20 2+ goals

27%

XV de Novembro U20 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Uberaba U20 (draw refunded)

82%

XV de Novembro U20 (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uberaba U20 at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

XV de Novembro U20 away — creates 0.92, concedes 3.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uberaba U20 attack 1.63 + XV de Novembro U20 defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.35

XV de Novembro U20 attack 0.92 + Uberaba U20 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Uberaba U20 scores more

67%

level

18%

XV de Novembro U20 scores more

15%

Uberaba U20 at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Uberaba U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

Joaozinho

18'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff