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Uberaba U20 vs Futgol U20 — Mineiro U20 2026

Uberaba U20
Uberaba U20
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Futgol U20
Futgol U20
9/13/2025Mineiro U20Mineiro U20 · Championship Round - 4Estádio Municipal Engenheiro João Guido

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Uberaba U2047%
×Draw23%
Futgol U2031%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uberaba U20
1.81
Futgol U20
1.43

Uberaba U20 creates 27% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 15 away

creates per match

Uberaba U20
1.63
Futgol U20
1.73

allows per match

Uberaba U20
1.13
Futgol U20
2.00

finishing

Uberaba U20+0.00on par
Futgol U20+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uberaba U20 ↓

Futgol U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Uberaba U20 or draw
69%
Uberaba U20 or Futgol U20
77%
Draw or Futgol U20
53%

Winning margin

Uberaba U20 wins by 2+
25%
Futgol U20 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Uberaba U20 1+ goals
84%
Uberaba U20 2+ goals
54%
Uberaba U20 3+ goals
27%
Futgol U20 1+ goals
76%
Futgol U20 2+ goals
42%
Futgol U20 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Uberaba U20 (draw refunded)
60%
Futgol U20 (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uberaba U20 at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Futgol U20 away — creates 1.73, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uberaba U20 attack 1.63 + Futgol U20 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.81

Futgol U20 attack 1.73 + Uberaba U20 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Uberaba U20 scores more
47%
level
23%
Futgol U20 scores more
31%

Uberaba U20 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Uberaba U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Uberaba U20 vs Futgol U20

Uberaba U20 and Futgol U20 drew 1-1 in Mineiro U20 on September 13, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Engenheiro João Guido in Uberaba, Minas Gerais.