Uberaba U20 0–2 Atlético Mineiro U20

Uberaba U20

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Atlético Mineiro U20

10/4/2025

Mineiro U20 · Championship Round - 6Estádio Municipal Engenheiro João Guido

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Uberaba U2029%

×Draw23%

Atlético Mineiro U2048%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Uberaba U20Expected goals in this matchAtlético Mineiro U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.81

Uberaba U20

1.38

Atlético Mineiro U20

1.81

Atlético Mineiro U20 creates 31% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 24 away

1.63

creates per match

2.50

1.13

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Uberaba U20

1.63

Atlético Mineiro U20

2.50

allows per match

Uberaba U20

1.13

Atlético Mineiro U20

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Uberaba U20+0.00on par

Atlético Mineiro U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uberaba U20 ↓

Atlético Mineiro U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Uberaba U20 or draw

52%

Uberaba U20 or Atlético Mineiro U20

77%

Draw or Atlético Mineiro U20

71%

Winning margin

Uberaba U20 wins by 2+

13%

Atlético Mineiro U20 wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Uberaba U20 1+ goals

75%

Uberaba U20 2+ goals

40%

Uberaba U20 3+ goals

16%

Atlético Mineiro U20 1+ goals

84%

Atlético Mineiro U20 2+ goals

54%

Atlético Mineiro U20 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Uberaba U20 (draw refunded)

38%

Atlético Mineiro U20 (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uberaba U20 at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Atlético Mineiro U20 away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.13 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uberaba U20 attack 1.63 + Atlético Mineiro U20 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.38

Atlético Mineiro U20 attack 2.50 + Uberaba U20 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Uberaba U20 scores more

29%

level

23%

Atlético Mineiro U20 scores more

48%

Atlético Mineiro U20 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Atlético Mineiro U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff