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UB Mazaalaynuud vs Lions — Premier League 2020

UB Mazaalaynuud
UB Mazaalaynuud
FT
2 – 5
Lions
Lions
9/27/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 16Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

UB Mazaalaynuud31%
×Draw19%
Lions50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UB Mazaalaynuud
2.08
Lions
2.62

Lions creates 26% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 18 away

creates per match

UB Mazaalaynuud
0.50
Lions
1.67

allows per match

UB Mazaalaynuud
3.56
Lions
3.67

finishing

UB Mazaalaynuud+0.00on par
Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UB Mazaalaynuud ↓

Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

UB Mazaalaynuud or draw
50%
UB Mazaalaynuud or Lions
81%
Draw or Lions
69%

Winning margin

UB Mazaalaynuud wins by 2+
16%
Lions wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

UB Mazaalaynuud 1+ goals
87%
UB Mazaalaynuud 2+ goals
61%
UB Mazaalaynuud 3+ goals
34%
Lions 1+ goals
93%
Lions 2+ goals
73%
Lions 3+ goals
48%

Draw no bet

UB Mazaalaynuud (draw refunded)
39%
Lions (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UB Mazaalaynuud at home — creates 0.50, concedes 3.56 · 18 matches

Lions away — creates 1.67, concedes 3.67 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UB Mazaalaynuud attack 0.50 + Lions defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.08

Lions attack 1.67 + UB Mazaalaynuud defence 3.56 → ÷2 → 2.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

UB Mazaalaynuud scores more
31%
level
19%
Lions scores more
50%

Lions at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UB Mazaalaynuud vs Lions

Lions beat UB Mazaalaynuud 5-2 in Premier League on September 27, 2021.

The match was played at Football Centre MFF in Ulaanbaatar.