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UB Mazaalaynuud vs Khoromkhon — Premier League 2020

UB Mazaalaynuud
UB Mazaalaynuud
FT
1 – 4
Khoromkhon
Khoromkhon
9/24/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 15Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

UB Mazaalaynuud28%
×Draw18%
Khoromkhon53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UB Mazaalaynuud
2.03
Khoromkhon
2.78

Khoromkhon creates 37% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 57 away

creates per match

UB Mazaalaynuud
0.50
Khoromkhon
2.00

allows per match

UB Mazaalaynuud
3.56
Khoromkhon
3.56

finishing

UB Mazaalaynuud+0.00on par
Khoromkhon+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UB Mazaalaynuud ↓

Khoromkhon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
70%30%4.5
51%49%

Double chance

UB Mazaalaynuud or draw
47%
UB Mazaalaynuud or Khoromkhon
82%
Draw or Khoromkhon
72%

Winning margin

UB Mazaalaynuud wins by 2+
15%
Khoromkhon wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

UB Mazaalaynuud 1+ goals
87%
UB Mazaalaynuud 2+ goals
60%
UB Mazaalaynuud 3+ goals
33%
Khoromkhon 1+ goals
94%
Khoromkhon 2+ goals
76%
Khoromkhon 3+ goals
51%

Draw no bet

UB Mazaalaynuud (draw refunded)
35%
Khoromkhon (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UB Mazaalaynuud at home — creates 0.50, concedes 3.56 · 18 matches

Khoromkhon away — creates 2.00, concedes 3.56 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UB Mazaalaynuud attack 0.50 + Khoromkhon defence 3.56 → ÷2 → 2.03

Khoromkhon attack 2.00 + UB Mazaalaynuud defence 3.56 → ÷2 → 2.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

UB Mazaalaynuud scores more
28%
level
18%
Khoromkhon scores more
53%

Khoromkhon at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Khoromkhon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UB Mazaalaynuud vs Khoromkhon

Khoromkhon beat UB Mazaalaynuud 4-1 in Premier League on September 24, 2021.

The match was played at Football Centre MFF in Ulaanbaatar.