UB Mazaalaynuud 1–5 Khangarid: Result & Stats

UB Mazaalaynuud

FT

1 – 5

Khangarid

9/10/2020

Premier League · Round 14Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

UB Mazaalaynuud13%

×Draw15%

Khangarid72%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UB MazaalaynuudExpected goals in this matchKhangarid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

2.91

UB Mazaalaynuud

1.18

Khangarid

2.91

Khangarid creates 147% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 81 away

0.50

creates per match

2.26

3.56

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

UB Mazaalaynuud

0.50

Khangarid

2.26

allows per match

UB Mazaalaynuud

3.56

Khangarid

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UB Mazaalaynuud+0.00on par

Khangarid+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UB Mazaalaynuud ↓

Khangarid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–27%

0–37%

0–45%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–29%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–35%

2–44%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

UB Mazaalaynuud or draw

28%

UB Mazaalaynuud or Khangarid

85%

Draw or Khangarid

87%

Winning margin

UB Mazaalaynuud wins by 2+

5%

Khangarid wins by 2+

52%

Team goals

UB Mazaalaynuud 1+ goals

69%

UB Mazaalaynuud 2+ goals

33%

UB Mazaalaynuud 3+ goals

12%

Khangarid 1+ goals

94%

Khangarid 2+ goals

78%

Khangarid 3+ goals

54%

Draw no bet

UB Mazaalaynuud (draw refunded)

15%

Khangarid (draw refunded)

85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UB Mazaalaynuud at home — creates 0.50, concedes 3.56 · 18 matches

Khangarid away — creates 2.26, concedes 1.85 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UB Mazaalaynuud attack 0.50 + Khangarid defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.18

Khangarid attack 2.26 + UB Mazaalaynuud defence 3.56 → ÷2 → 2.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

UB Mazaalaynuud scores more

13%

level

15%

Khangarid scores more

72%

Khangarid at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Khangarid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff