UAI Urquiza 0–3 Colegiales: Result & Stats

UAI Urquiza

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Colegiales

9/3/2022

Primera B Metropolitana · Apertura - 13Estadio Monumental de Villa Lynch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

UAI Urquiza34%

×Draw29%

Colegiales37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UAI UrquizaExpected goals in this matchColegiales

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.11

UAI Urquiza

1.05

Colegiales

1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 135 home / 108 away

0.94

creates per match

1.19

1.04

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

UAI Urquiza

0.94

Colegiales

1.19

allows per match

UAI Urquiza

1.04

Colegiales

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UAI Urquiza+0.00on par

Colegiales+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UAI Urquiza ↓

Colegiales →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

UAI Urquiza or draw

63%

UAI Urquiza or Colegiales

71%

Draw or Colegiales

66%

Winning margin

UAI Urquiza wins by 2+

13%

Colegiales wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

UAI Urquiza 1+ goals

65%

UAI Urquiza 2+ goals

28%

UAI Urquiza 3+ goals

9%

Colegiales 1+ goals

67%

Colegiales 2+ goals

30%

Colegiales 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

UAI Urquiza (draw refunded)

48%

Colegiales (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UAI Urquiza at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.04 · 135 matches

Colegiales away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.16 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UAI Urquiza attack 0.94 + Colegiales defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.05

Colegiales attack 1.19 + UAI Urquiza defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

UAI Urquiza scores more

34%

level

29%

Colegiales scores more

37%

Colegiales at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Colegiales will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff