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UAE W vs Iraq W — Friendlies Women 2020

UAE W
UAE W
FT
1 – 0
Iraq W
Iraq W
2/8/2024Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies 2Theyab Awana Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

UAE W82%
×Draw12%
Iraq W7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UAE W
3.06
Iraq W
0.78

UAE W creates 292% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 4 away

creates per match

UAE W
1.38
Iraq W
0.00

allows per match

UAE W
1.56
Iraq W
4.75

finishing

UAE W+0.00on par
Iraq W+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UAE W ↓

Iraq W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–15%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (11%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

UAE W or draw
93%
UAE W or Iraq W
88%
Draw or Iraq W
18%

Winning margin

UAE W wins by 2+
63%
Iraq W wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

UAE W 1+ goals
95%
UAE W 2+ goals
80%
UAE W 3+ goals
57%
Iraq W 1+ goals
54%
Iraq W 2+ goals
18%
Iraq W 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

UAE W (draw refunded)
93%
Iraq W (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UAE W at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

Iraq W away — creates 0.00, concedes 4.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UAE W attack 1.38 + Iraq W defence 4.75 → ÷2 → 3.06

Iraq W attack 0.00 + UAE W defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

UAE W scores more
82%
level
12%
Iraq W scores more
7%

UAE W at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "UAE W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Women: UAE W 1–0 Iraq W

UAE W beat Iraq W 1-0 in Friendlies Women on February 8, 2024.

The match was played at Theyab Awana Stadium in Dubai.