UAE U23 2–3 Tunisia U23: Result & Stats

UAE U23

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Tunisia U23

Unknown 62', 43'

A. Doubal 90'

S. Bouajila 65'

Z. Kada 62' (pen)

11/18/2025

Friendlies · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

UAE U2359%

×Draw20%

Tunisia U2321%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UAE U23Expected goals in this matchTunisia U23

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.30

1.30

UAE U23

2.30

Tunisia U23

1.30

UAE U23 creates 77% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

2.40

creates per match

1.20

1.40

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

UAE U23

2.40

Tunisia U23

1.20

allows per match

UAE U23

1.40

Tunisia U23

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UAE U23+0.00on par

Tunisia U23+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UAE U23 ↓

Tunisia U23 →

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

UAE U23 or draw

79%

UAE U23 or Tunisia U23

80%

Draw or Tunisia U23

41%

Winning margin

UAE U23 wins by 2+

38%

Tunisia U23 wins by 2+

Team goals

UAE U23 1+ goals

90%

UAE U23 2+ goals

67%

UAE U23 3+ goals

40%

Tunisia U23 1+ goals

73%

Tunisia U23 2+ goals

37%

Tunisia U23 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

UAE U23 (draw refunded)

74%

Tunisia U23 (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

UAE U23 at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Tunisia U23 away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

UAE U23 attack 2.40 + Tunisia U23 defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.30

Tunisia U23 attack 1.20 + UAE U23 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 59%?"

UAE U23 scores more

59%

level

20%

Tunisia U23 scores more

21%

UAE U23 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "UAE U23 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'

62'

Z. KadaPenalty

62'

65'

S. Bouajila

90'

A. Doubal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff