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UAE U23 vs Jordan U23 — Friendlies 2025

UAE U23
UAE U23
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Jordan U23
Jordan U23
Unknown 45'
Unknown 74'
10/13/2025FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

UAE U2338%
×Draw24%
Jordan U2338%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UAE U23
1.57
Jordan U23
1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

UAE U23
2.40
Jordan U23
1.75

allows per match

UAE U23
1.40
Jordan U23
0.75

finishing

UAE U23+0.00on par
Jordan U23+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UAE U23 ↓

Jordan U23 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

UAE U23 or draw
62%
UAE U23 or Jordan U23
76%
Draw or Jordan U23
62%

Winning margin

UAE U23 wins by 2+
19%
Jordan U23 wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

UAE U23 1+ goals
79%
UAE U23 2+ goals
46%
UAE U23 3+ goals
21%
Jordan U23 1+ goals
79%
Jordan U23 2+ goals
46%
Jordan U23 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

UAE U23 (draw refunded)
50%
Jordan U23 (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UAE U23 at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Jordan U23 away — creates 1.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UAE U23 attack 2.40 + Jordan U23 defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.57

Jordan U23 attack 1.75 + UAE U23 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

UAE U23 scores more
38%
level
24%
Jordan U23 scores more
38%

UAE U23 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "UAE U23 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
74'
UAE
Jordan
M. Broli
Manager: M. Broli
Abdullah Abu Zema
Manager: Abdullah Abu Zema

Friendlies: UAE U23 1–1 Jordan U23

UAE U23 and Jordan U23 drew 1-1 in Friendlies on October 13, 2025.

Goals: ? (45', 74').