U. San Martin 3–1 Carlos Stein: Result & Stats

U. San Martin

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Carlos Stein

5/21/2022

Primera División · Apertura - 15Estadio Municipal Iván Elías Moreno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

U. San Martin47%

×Draw25%

Carlos Stein27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

U. San MartinExpected goals in this matchCarlos Stein

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.13

U. San Martin

1.57

Carlos Stein

1.13

U. San Martin creates 39% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 32 away

1.24

creates per match

0.91

1.34

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

U. San Martin

1.24

Carlos Stein

0.91

allows per match

U. San Martin

1.34

Carlos Stein

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

U. San Martin+0.00on par

Carlos Stein+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U. San Martin ↓

Carlos Stein →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

U. San Martin or draw

73%

U. San Martin or Carlos Stein

75%

Draw or Carlos Stein

53%

Winning margin

U. San Martin wins by 2+

24%

Carlos Stein wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

U. San Martin 1+ goals

79%

U. San Martin 2+ goals

46%

U. San Martin 3+ goals

21%

Carlos Stein 1+ goals

68%

Carlos Stein 2+ goals

31%

Carlos Stein 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

U. San Martin (draw refunded)

63%

Carlos Stein (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U. San Martin at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.34 · 83 matches

Carlos Stein away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.91 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U. San Martin attack 1.24 + Carlos Stein defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.57

Carlos Stein attack 0.91 + U. San Martin defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

U. San Martin scores more

47%

level

25%

Carlos Stein scores more

27%

U. San Martin at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "U. San Martin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff