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Carlos Stein vs U. San Martin — Segunda División 2018

Carlos Stein
Carlos Stein
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
U. San Martin
U. San Martin
8/15/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 20Estadio Carlos Samamé Cáceres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Carlos Stein28%
×Draw24%
U. San Martin48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carlos Stein
1.25
U. San Martin
1.72

U. San Martin creates 38% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 41 away

creates per match

Carlos Stein
1.12
U. San Martin
1.20

allows per match

Carlos Stein
2.24
U. San Martin
1.39

finishing

Carlos Stein+0.00on par
U. San Martin+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlos Stein ↓

U. San Martin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Carlos Stein or draw
52%
Carlos Stein or U. San Martin
76%
Draw or U. San Martin
72%

Winning margin

Carlos Stein wins by 2+
12%
U. San Martin wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Carlos Stein 1+ goals
71%
Carlos Stein 2+ goals
36%
Carlos Stein 3+ goals
13%
U. San Martin 1+ goals
82%
U. San Martin 2+ goals
51%
U. San Martin 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Carlos Stein (draw refunded)
37%
U. San Martin (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlos Stein at home — creates 1.12, concedes 2.24 · 33 matches

U. San Martin away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.39 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlos Stein attack 1.12 + U. San Martin defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.25

U. San Martin attack 1.20 + Carlos Stein defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Carlos Stein scores more
28%
level
24%
U. San Martin scores more
48%

U. San Martin at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "U. San Martin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Carlos Stein 0–3 U. San Martin

U. San Martin beat Carlos Stein 3-0 in Segunda División on August 15, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Carlos Samamé Cáceres in Ferreñafe.