U. San Martin 1–0 Academia Cantolao: Result & Stats

U. San Martin

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Academia Cantolao

D. Minaya 73'

5/25/2025

Segunda División · Round 8Estadio Miguel Grau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

U. San Martin46%

×Draw27%

Academia Cantolao27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

U. San MartinExpected goals in this matchAcademia Cantolao

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.01

U. San Martin

1.39

Academia Cantolao

1.01

U. San Martin creates 38% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 28 away

1.23

creates per match

0.89

1.13

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

U. San Martin

1.23

Academia Cantolao

0.89

allows per match

U. San Martin

1.13

Academia Cantolao

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

U. San Martin+0.00on par

Academia Cantolao+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U. San Martin ↓

Academia Cantolao →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

U. San Martin or draw

73%

U. San Martin or Academia Cantolao

73%

Draw or Academia Cantolao

54%

Winning margin

U. San Martin wins by 2+

22%

Academia Cantolao wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

U. San Martin 1+ goals

75%

U. San Martin 2+ goals

40%

U. San Martin 3+ goals

16%

Academia Cantolao 1+ goals

64%

Academia Cantolao 2+ goals

27%

Academia Cantolao 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

U. San Martin (draw refunded)

63%

Academia Cantolao (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U. San Martin at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.13 · 40 matches

Academia Cantolao away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.54 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U. San Martin attack 1.23 + Academia Cantolao defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.39

Academia Cantolao attack 0.89 + U. San Martin defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

U. San Martin scores more

46%

level

27%

Academia Cantolao scores more

27%

U. San Martin at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "U. San Martin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

52'

58'

60'

66'

70'

F. Vera← H. Ruiz

70'

J. Caicedo← A. Arteaga

73'

D. Minaya

77'

C. Vega← D. Huacachin

77'

S. Cortes← J. Sanchez

81'

T. Carranza

82'

J. Falconi← S. Cornejo

85'

M. Pacheco← A. Laura

86'

G. Oliva

90+1'

J. Gomez

U.

Academia

1

Razzeto

30

Ruiz

25

▼

3

20

24

8

23

▼

Rojas

16

▼

7

27

1

3

⚽

Minaya

5

Flores

25

▼

Ruiz

19

Chumpitaz

29

Ismodes

10

▼

Sanchez

8

Carranza

30

▼

Cornejo

28

▼

Huacachin

18

▼

Arteaga

Manager: V. Rivera

70'▲F. Vera←▼H. Ruiz

70'▲J. Caicedo←▼A. Arteaga

77'▲C. Vega←▼D. Huacachin

77'▲S. Cortes←▼J. Sanchez

82'▲J. Falconi←▼S. Cornejo

U. San Martin substitutes

12Lopez90Alfageme39Vera9Zeta17Caicedo13Vega6Cortes16Falconi26Reyes

Manager: J. Mariño

58'▲R. Ardiles←▼J. Ramos

66'▲G. Oliva←▼F. Rojas

85'▲M. Pacheco←▼A. Laura

Academia Cantolao substitutes

12Bettocchi2Diego22Pacheco15Cordova18Jimenez17Rodriguez10Ardiles11Oliva19Lopez

Segunda División: U. San Martin 1–0 Academia Cantolao

U. San Martin beat Academia Cantolao 1-0 in Segunda División on May 25, 2025.

Goals: D. Minaya (73').

The match was played at Estadio Miguel Grau in Callao.

U. San Martin vs Academia Cantolao — Segunda División 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Segunda División: U. San Martin 1–0 Academia Cantolao