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U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Veracruz — Liga MX 2018

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Veracruz
Veracruz
1/6/2019Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 1Estadio Olimpico Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas67%
×Draw19%
Veracruz14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
2.13
Veracruz
0.83

U.N.A.M. - Pumas creates 157% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 26 away

creates per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.61
Veracruz
0.58

allows per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.08
Veracruz
2.65

finishing

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.00on par
Veracruz+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U.N.A.M. - Pumas ↓

Veracruz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or draw
86%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas or Veracruz
81%
Draw or Veracruz
33%

Winning margin

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+
43%
Veracruz wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals
88%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals
63%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals
35%
Veracruz 1+ goals
56%
Veracruz 2+ goals
20%
Veracruz 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)
83%
Veracruz (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.08 · 147 matches

Veracruz away — creates 0.58, concedes 2.65 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.61 + Veracruz defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.13

Veracruz attack 0.58 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more
67%
level
19%
Veracruz scores more
14%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "U.N.A.M. - Pumas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Veracruz

U.N.A.M. - Pumas and Veracruz drew 0-0 in Liga MX on January 6, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Olimpico Universitario in Mexico City.