U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Tigres UANL

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

Preview

03:00

Tigres UANL

10/25/2026

Liga MX · Apertura - 14

Big match

42%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

model favours

42%27%31%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas score first in only 29% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

55%

under 2.5 goals

50%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas42%

×Draw27%

Tigres UANL31%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

U.N.A.M. - PumasExpected goals in this matchTigres UANL

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.11

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.36

Tigres UANL

1.11

U.N.A.M. - Pumas creates 23% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 8 away

1.55

creates per match

0.87

1.36

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.55

Tigres UANL

0.87

allows per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.36

Tigres UANL

1.17

+0.45scores more than expected

finishing

+0.26scores more than expected

finishing

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.45scores more

Tigres UANL+0.26scores more

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U.N.A.M. - Pumas ↓

Tigres UANL →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or draw

69%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or Tigres UANL

73%

Draw or Tigres UANL

58%

Winning margin

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+

20%

Tigres UANL wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals

74%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals

39%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals

16%

Tigres UANL 1+ goals

67%

Tigres UANL 2+ goals

30%

Tigres UANL 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)

58%

Tigres UANL (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.36 · 10 matches

Tigres UANL away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.17 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.55 + Tigres UANL defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.36

Tigres UANL attack 0.87 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more

42%

level

27%

Tigres UANL scores more

31%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "U.N.A.M. - Pumas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

Balanced

Tigres UANL

Defensively solid

51%Possession54%

82%Pass accuracy83%

12.4ShotsBiggest gap14.8

1.42xG1.33

U.N.A.M. - PumasTigres UANL

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

2

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

4

Draws

4

Tigres UANL

Avg goals: 2.8BTTS: 80%

1–01–11–21–32–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Pumas

LLWLD

UANL

LDLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff