Tigres UANL 0–1 U.N.A.M. - Pumas: Result & Stats

Tigres UANL

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1/15/2026

Liga MX · Clausura - 2Estadio Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 151+ matches

Tigres UANL53%

×Draw24%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tigres UANLExpected goals in this matchU.N.A.M. - Pumas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.02

Tigres UANL

1.69

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.02

Tigres UANL creates 66% more chances

Season form · 161 home / 151 away

1.83

creates per match

1.13

0.91

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Tigres UANL

1.83

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.13

allows per match

Tigres UANL

0.91

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tigres UANL+0.00on par

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tigres UANL ↓

U.N.A.M. - Pumas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Tigres UANL or draw

77%

Tigres UANL or U.N.A.M. - Pumas

76%

Draw or U.N.A.M. - Pumas

47%

Winning margin

Tigres UANL wins by 2+

29%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Tigres UANL 1+ goals

82%

Tigres UANL 2+ goals

50%

Tigres UANL 3+ goals

24%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals

64%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals

27%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Tigres UANL (draw refunded)

70%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tigres UANL at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.91 · 161 matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.54 · 151 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tigres UANL attack 1.83 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.69

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.13 + Tigres UANL defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Tigres UANL scores more

53%

level

24%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more

23%

Tigres UANL at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Tigres UANL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff