Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Tigres UANL — Liga MX 2026

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tigres UANL
Tigres UANL
J. Dinenno 84' (pen)
G. Fernández 50'
O. Herrera 90+3'
8/28/2023Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 6Estadio Olímpico Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas42%
×Draw27%
Tigres UANL31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.37
Tigres UANL
1.14

U.N.A.M. - Pumas creates 20% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

creates per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.62
Tigres UANL
0.91

allows per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.37
Tigres UANL
1.12

finishing

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.47scores more
Tigres UANL+0.20scores more

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U.N.A.M. - Pumas ↓

Tigres UANL →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or draw
69%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas or Tigres UANL
73%
Draw or Tigres UANL
58%

Winning margin

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+
20%
Tigres UANL wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals
75%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals
40%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals
16%
Tigres UANL 1+ goals
68%
Tigres UANL 2+ goals
32%
Tigres UANL 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)
57%
Tigres UANL (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.37 · 11 matches

Tigres UANL away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.12 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.62 + Tigres UANL defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.37

Tigres UANL attack 0.91 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more
42%
level
27%
Tigres UANL scores more
31%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "U.N.A.M. - Pumas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
J. DinennoU.N.A.M. - PumasU.N.A.M. - Pumas · F
7.6

Match Events

24'
Eduardo Salvio
45+3'
Juan Dinenno
45+3'
Cesar Huerta
46'
R. Fulgencio← J. Vigón
49'
Lisandro Magallán
50'
G. Fernández
67'
Pablo Monroy
69'
G. del Prete← G. Fernández
70'
Jesús Angulo
74'
O. Herrera← S. Córdova
75'
F. Ordóñez← J. Angulo
83'
Nahuel Guzmán
84'
J. DinennoPenalty
86'
C. Gutiérrez← J. Dinenno
87'
S. Trigos← U. Rivas
90+4'
Nicolás Ibáñez
90+1'
J. Molina← E. Salvio
90+1'
A. Aldrete← P. Monroy
90'
F. González← L. Quiñones
90'
S. Fierro← Rafael Carioca
90+3'
O. Herrera↳ R. Fulgencio

Possession

38%U.N.A.M.

Shots

12U.N.A.M.

Pass accuracy

47%U.N.A.M.

Statistics

U.N.A.M.Tigres
Overview
38%Possession62%
12Total Shots8
2Corners2
16Fouls11
Shots
12Total Shots8
6On Target4
6Off Target2
0Blocked2
10Inside Box3
2Outside Box5
Passing
38%Possession62%
310Total Passes512
228Accurate Passes423
74%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
16Fouls11
5Yellow Cards3
0Offsides1

Liga MX: U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2–1 Tigres UANL

U.N.A.M. - Pumas beat Tigres UANL 2-1 in Liga MX on August 28, 2023.

Goals: G. Fernández (50'), J. Dinenno (84' pen), O. Herrera (90+3').

Tigres UANL controlled possession (62%) and registered 8 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Universitario in D.F..