U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1–1 Tigres UANL: Result & Stats

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Tigres UANL

J. Dinenno 47'

A. Gignac 90+6'

8/25/2022

Liga MX · Apertura - 16Estadio Olímpico de Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas42%

×Draw27%

Tigres UANL31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

U.N.A.M. - PumasExpected goals in this matchTigres UANL

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.14

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.37

Tigres UANL

1.14

U.N.A.M. - Pumas creates 20% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

1.62

creates per match

0.91

1.37

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.62

Tigres UANL

0.91

allows per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.37

Tigres UANL

1.12

+0.47scores more than expected

finishing

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.47scores more

Tigres UANL+0.20scores more

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U.N.A.M. - Pumas ↓

Tigres UANL →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or draw

69%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or Tigres UANL

73%

Draw or Tigres UANL

58%

Winning margin

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+

20%

Tigres UANL wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals

75%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals

40%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals

16%

Tigres UANL 1+ goals

68%

Tigres UANL 2+ goals

32%

Tigres UANL 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)

57%

Tigres UANL (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.37 · 11 matches

Tigres UANL away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.12 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.62 + Tigres UANL defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.37

Tigres UANL attack 0.91 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more

42%

level

27%

Tigres UANL scores more

31%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "U.N.A.M. - Pumas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

J. Angulo

Tigres UANL · D

7.3

Match Events

34'

Leonel López

47'

J. Dinenno↳ L. López

53'

P. Bennevendo← J. Galindo

58'

J. Caicedo← V. Loroña

66'

Diego Reyes

71'

M. García← L. López

72'

Juan Dinenno

72'

R. Fulgencio← Rafael Carioca

83'

C. Gutiérrez← J. Caicedo

83'

C. Huerta← G. Del Prete

90+8'

Carlos Gutiérrez

90'

Cesar Huerta

90+1'

J. Vigón← D. Reyes

90+6'

A. Gignac↳ R. Fulgencio

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

U.N.A.M.Tigres

Overview

32%Possession68%

7Total Shots12

0Corners10

20Fouls7

Shots

7Total Shots12

3On Target3

3Off Target7

1Blocked2

3Inside Box8

4Outside Box4

Passing

32%Possession68%

243Total Passes500

175Accurate Passes429

72%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

20Fouls7

4Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1