U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3–1 Tigres UANL: Result & Stats

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Tigres UANL

M. Alustiza 90+2'

F. Mora 59'

C. González 52'

Rafael Carioca 55'

12/2/2018

Liga MX · Apertura - Quarter-finalsEstadio Olimpico Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas42%

×Draw27%

Tigres UANL31%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

U.N.A.M. - PumasExpected goals in this matchTigres UANL

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.14

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.37

Tigres UANL

1.14

U.N.A.M. - Pumas creates 20% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

1.62

creates per match

0.91

1.37

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.62

Tigres UANL

0.91

allows per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.37

Tigres UANL

1.12

+0.47scores more than expected

finishing

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.47scores more

Tigres UANL+0.20scores more

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U.N.A.M. - Pumas ↓

Tigres UANL →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or draw

69%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or Tigres UANL

73%

Draw or Tigres UANL

58%

Winning margin

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+

20%

Tigres UANL wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals

75%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals

40%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals

16%

Tigres UANL 1+ goals

68%

Tigres UANL 2+ goals

32%

Tigres UANL 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)

57%

Tigres UANL (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.37 · 11 matches

Tigres UANL away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.12 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.62 + Tigres UANL defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.37

Tigres UANL attack 0.91 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more

42%

level

27%

Tigres UANL scores more

31%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "U.N.A.M. - Pumas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

I. Malcorra

U.N.A.M. - Pumas · M

8.1

Match Events

26'

Rafael Carioca

29'

Alan Mozo

52'

C. González↳ I. Malcorra

55'

Rafael Carioca↳ J. Aquino

58'

M. Alustiza← D. Cabrera

59'

F. Mora↳ I. Malcorra

66'

A. Mendoza← F. Mora

73'

J. Damm← Juninho

74'

Javier Aquino

76'

E. Valencia← L. Rodríguez

84'

I. Sosa← E. Vargas

85'

K. Escamilla← M. Rodríguez

86'

Victor Malcorra

90+2'

M. Alustiza↳ C. González

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

U.N.A.M.Tigres

Overview

46%Possession54%

7Total Shots17

0Corners5

12Fouls12

Shots

7Total Shots17

4On Target3

3Off Target12

0Blocked2

5Inside Box7

2Outside Box10

Passing

46%Possession54%

327Total Passes377

270Accurate Passes316

83%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls12

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides3