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U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Tigres UANL — Liga MX 2026

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Tigres UANL
Tigres UANL
C. González 62', 45', 7'
A. Gignac 47'
R. Durán 32'
E. Vargas 23'
10/21/2018Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 13Estadio Olimpico Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas42%
×Draw27%
Tigres UANL31%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.37
Tigres UANL
1.14

U.N.A.M. - Pumas creates 20% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

creates per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.62
Tigres UANL
0.91

allows per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.37
Tigres UANL
1.12

finishing

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.47scores more
Tigres UANL+0.20scores more

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U.N.A.M. - Pumas ↓

Tigres UANL →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or draw
69%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas or Tigres UANL
73%
Draw or Tigres UANL
58%

Winning margin

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+
20%
Tigres UANL wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals
75%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals
40%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals
16%
Tigres UANL 1+ goals
68%
Tigres UANL 2+ goals
32%
Tigres UANL 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)
57%
Tigres UANL (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.37 · 11 matches

Tigres UANL away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.12 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.62 + Tigres UANL defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.37

Tigres UANL attack 0.91 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more
42%
level
27%
Tigres UANL scores more
31%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "U.N.A.M. - Pumas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
J. AquinoTigres UANLTigres UANL · M
9.6

Match Events

7'
C. González
23'
E. Vargas↳ J. Aquino
32'
R. Durán↳ J. Aquino
45'
C. González↳ P. Barrera
47'
A. Gignac↳ J. Aquino
53'
Alan Mendoza
56'
Pablo Barrera
58'
J. Quiñones← R. Durán
59'
M. Alustiza← A. Mendoza
62'
C. González↳ P. Barrera
66'
Alan Mozo
74'
D. Cabrera← F. Mora
81'
J. Iturbe← M. Rodríguez
82'
I. Sosa← E. Vargas
85'
E. Valencia← A. Gignac

Possession

48%U.N.A.M.

Shots

14U.N.A.M.

Pass accuracy

50%U.N.A.M.

Statistics

U.N.A.M.Tigres
Overview
48%Possession52%
14Total Shots16
4Corners4
12Fouls9
Shots
14Total Shots16
6On Target9
4Off Target5
4Blocked2
10Inside Box10
4Outside Box6
Passing
48%Possession52%
380Total Passes412
323Accurate Passes350
85%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
6Saves3
Discipline
12Fouls9
3Yellow Cards0
1Offsides2

Liga MX: U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3–3 Tigres UANL

U.N.A.M. - Pumas and Tigres UANL drew 3-3 in Liga MX on October 21, 2018.

Goals: C. González (7', 45', 62'), E. Vargas (23'), R. Durán (32'), A. Gignac (47').

Tigres UANL controlled possession (52%) and registered 16 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estadio Olimpico Universitario in Mexico City.