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U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Puebla — Liga MX 2026

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Puebla
Puebla
E. Salvio 69'
G. del Prete 11'
F. Mancuello 90'
Á. Robles 85', 33'
O. Fernández 31'
3/5/2023Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 10Estadio Olímpico de Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 142+ matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas50%
×Draw25%
Puebla25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.62
Puebla
1.07

U.N.A.M. - Pumas creates 51% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 142 away

creates per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.59
Puebla
1.05

allows per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.09
Puebla
1.65

finishing

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.00on par
Puebla+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U.N.A.M. - Pumas ↓

Puebla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or draw
75%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas or Puebla
75%
Draw or Puebla
50%

Winning margin

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+
26%
Puebla wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals
80%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals
48%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals
22%
Puebla 1+ goals
66%
Puebla 2+ goals
29%
Puebla 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)
67%
Puebla (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.09 · 148 matches

Puebla away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.65 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.59 + Puebla defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.62

Puebla attack 1.05 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more
50%
level
25%
Puebla scores more
25%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "U.N.A.M. - Pumas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
F. MancuelloPueblaPuebla · M
8.9

Match Events

11'
G. del Prete↳ N. Freire
20'
Hector Ramirez
31'
O. Fernández↳ Á. Robles
33'
Á. Robles↳ O. Fernández
45'
George Corral
46'
A. Álvarez← C. Huerta
46'
Diogo de Oliveira← G. del Prete
46'
P. González← G. Corral
52'
Sebastián Sosa
52'
Emilio Martínez
61'
I. Vázquez← E. Martínez
62'
M. Barragán← G. Martínez
69'
S. Trigos← J. Molina
69'
E. Salvio
82'
L. García← Gustavo Ferrareis
85'
Á. Robles↳ F. Mancuello
87'
R. Galindo← U. Rivas
87'
G. Rodríguez← P. Monroy
90'
F. Mancuello↳ L. García

Possession

42%U.N.A.M.

Shots

14U.N.A.M.

Pass accuracy

48%U.N.A.M.

Statistics

U.N.A.M.Puebla
Overview
42%Possession58%
14Total Shots19
5Corners7
5Fouls12
Shots
14Total Shots19
5On Target8
8Off Target7
1Blocked4
10Inside Box10
4Outside Box9
Passing
42%Possession58%
353Total Passes489
282Accurate Passes431
80%Pass Accuracy88%
Goalkeeping
4Saves4
Discipline
5Fouls12
1Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0
1Offsides5

Liga MX: U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2–4 Puebla

Puebla beat U.N.A.M. - Pumas 4-2 in Liga MX on March 5, 2023.

Goals: G. del Prete (11'), O. Fernández (31'), Á. Robles (33', 85'), E. Salvio (69'), F. Mancuello (90').

Puebla controlled possession (58%) and registered 19 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de Universitario in D.F..