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Puebla vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas — Liga MX 2026

Puebla
Puebla
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
E. Guerra 41'
J. Vargas 29'
Juninho 88'
R. Morales 64' (pen)
G. Martinez 43'
2/14/2026Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 6Estadio Cuauhtemoc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 140+ matches

Puebla39%
×Draw26%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puebla
1.40
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 140 home / 151 away

creates per match

Puebla
1.26
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.13

allows per match

Puebla
1.47
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.54

finishing

Puebla+0.00on par
U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puebla ↓

U.N.A.M. - Pumas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Puebla or draw
65%
Puebla or U.N.A.M. - Pumas
74%
Draw or U.N.A.M. - Pumas
61%

Winning margin

Puebla wins by 2+
18%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Puebla 1+ goals
75%
Puebla 2+ goals
41%
Puebla 3+ goals
17%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals
73%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals
37%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Puebla (draw refunded)
53%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puebla at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.47 · 140 matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.54 · 151 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puebla attack 1.26 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.40

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.13 + Puebla defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Puebla scores more
39%
level
26%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more
35%

Puebla at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Puebla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31
R. MoralesU.N.A.M. - PumasU.N.A.M. - Pumas · F
8.3

Match Events

7'
Iker Moreno
29'
J. Vargas↳ K. Velasco
41'
E. Guerra↳ E. Gomez
43'
G. Martinez↳ R. Morales
53'
A. Carrasquilla← C. Garza
55'
A. Ramirez← E. Guerra
55'
M. Ramirez← C. Baltazar
62'
Robert MoralesPenalty confirmed
64'
F. Monarrez← E. Gomez
64'
A. Organista← L. Rey
64'
R. MoralesPenalty
68'
Juninho← R. Duarte
68'
A. Azuaje← A. Medina
70'
Angel Azuaje
77'
U. Antuna← G. Martinez
83'
E. Mustre← E. Lozano
88'
Juninho↳ U. Antuna

Possession

39%Puebla

Shots

17Puebla

Pass accuracy

47%Puebla

Statistics

PueblaU.N.A.M.
Overview
39%Possession61%
17Total Shots17
0.95Expected Goals (xG)2.00
4Corners2
8Fouls10
Shots
17Total Shots17
4On Target5
9Off Target6
4Blocked6
11Inside Box10
6Outside Box7
Passing
39%Possession61%
355Total Passes565
285Accurate Passes504
80%Pass Accuracy89%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
-1.12Goals Prevented-1.12
Discipline
8Fouls10
1Yellow Cards1
0Offsides1

Liga MX: Puebla 2–3 U.N.A.M. - Pumas

U.N.A.M. - Pumas beat Puebla 3-2 in Liga MX on February 14, 2026.

Goals: J. Vargas (29'), E. Guerra (41'), G. Martinez (43'), R. Morales (64' pen), Juninho (88').

U.N.A.M. - Pumas controlled possession (61%) and registered 17 shots to 17.

The match was played at Estadio Cuauhtemoc in Puebla.