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U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Puebla — Liga MX 2026

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
CANC
00:00
Puebla
Puebla
4/12/2020Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 13Estadio Olímpico de Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 142+ matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas50%
×Draw25%
Puebla25%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.62
Puebla
1.07

U.N.A.M. - Pumas creates 51% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 142 away

creates per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.59
Puebla
1.05

allows per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.09
Puebla
1.65

finishing

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.00on par
Puebla+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U.N.A.M. - Pumas ↓

Puebla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or draw
75%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas or Puebla
75%
Draw or Puebla
50%

Winning margin

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+
26%
Puebla wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals
80%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals
48%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals
22%
Puebla 1+ goals
66%
Puebla 2+ goals
29%
Puebla 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)
67%
Puebla (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.09 · 148 matches

Puebla away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.65 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.59 + Puebla defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.62

Puebla attack 1.05 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more
50%
level
25%
Puebla scores more
25%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "U.N.A.M. - Pumas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: U.N.A.M. - Pumas host Puebla

April 12, 2020: U.N.A.M. - Pumas take on Puebla in Liga MX. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

U.N.A.M. - Pumas host Puebla at Estadio Olímpico de Universitario.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.